In five presidential elections in US history, the winning candidate did not have the popular vote.
For example, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with 65.8 million votes over Donald Trump who received 62.9 million votes. However, Trump won the presidency securing 270 electoral votes, and surpassing the 270 needed to win.
History has made the voting system a lot more complex than people may realize. Factors such as third-party votes affecting the performance of the two main parties, young voters being largely unpredictable and the inner-workings of the Electoral College, all affect election results and voters should keep this in mind when voting.
With 13 votes, Virginia makes up 2.4% of the electoral college. The urban areas in the north lean blue while more rural areas in the south lean red, making Virgnia a purple state. Therefore, in Virginia, the state electors hold the power in the presidential race.
When consulting a sample ballot, one might observe that there are far more than two presidential candidates listed; there are six, in fact. According to 270 To Win, 1,865,720 voters deviated from the norm in the 2020 presidential election to back the Libertarians.
Meet the winner-take-all system. In a system like this, if a candidate wins by only one vote, they claim the entire victory. According to social studies teacher Matthew Stoner, it’s the winner-take-all system we have to blame for constant failure by third parties in presidential elections.
“Within that incubator of winner-take-all, what’s going to be birthed out of there is the two-party system,” Stoner said. “There just isn’t enough room for a third party to gain any real electorate footholds.”
According to the U.S. Senate, there are currently four senators who identify as independent. Historically, Stoner says, third parties can cause commotion but have only won one presidential election: the Republican Party in 1860. According to Stoner, the party grew out of the pre-Civil War era and filled the space the Whig Party left when it died out.
“There was a major critical juncture that led to the Republicans developing as the second of the two major parties,” Stoner said. “There hasn’t been one since then. There’s been a couple attempts, but they haven’t been able to break that two-party mold.”
While third parties don’t typically win elections, they can shake things up, like Reform Party candidate Ross Perot did in the 1992 election. The Center for Election Science defines spoiler votes as votes that are cast for a third-party candidate, which give the victory to the primary candidate who is less similar to the third-party candidate. Perot claimed 19,742,267 of the popular votes in 1992 according to 270 To Win, votes that would have gone to George H.W. Bush, had Perot not run.
“Clinton was kind of an unknown, up-and-coming Democratic governor from a southern state and there was another guy named Ross Perot,” Stoner said. “He took so many votes from President Bush at the time, that Clinton was allowed to kind of sneak in there. In 2000 Ralph Nader ran on the left wing of the political spectrum against George W Bush and he cost Al Gore many votes—that cost him some electoral votes. And the election went to George W. Bush in a very close election.”
When viewers turn on the news to watch election day unfold live, they can expect to see one click from an anchor coloring states either red or blue, overlaid with a number on top. At polling places throughout the country, votes will be tallied as millions of people voice their say in a race that has been deemed a near toss-up, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight. Of the hundreds of millions of votes set to be cast by Nov. 5, only a small percentage will likely decide the election.
In the U.S., votes don’t technically go directly toward a presidential and vice presidential candidate. Instead, their votes go to a slate of electors, who then go on to vote for the ticket each state votes for (with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which split their electoral votes). Known as the Electoral College, each state gets a different number of votes, called electoral votes, depending on the number of representatives they have in the U.S. House. Larger populated states such as Illinois and Pennsylvania award the statewide winner 19 electoral votes. Likewise, less populated entities like Alaska and Wyoming only have three. In total, 538 electoral votes are up for grabs, meaning candidates need 270 to win.
“State sovereignty and the protection of the institution of slavery at the founding was the rationale behind choosing The Electoral College,” social studies teacher Matthew Stoner said. “Obviously, that’s diminished in its value and is largely obsolete now, but the issue of state sovereignty is still something that’s held close to the hearts of many Americans.”
Currently, according to Cook Political Report, seven states are battleground states, or states where either candidate has a reasonable shot at winning its electoral votes: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For context, according to Statista, five of them voted for the Republicans by slim margins back in 2016 before swinging to Democrats in the next election, and all seven were decided by less than 3% in 2020.
“What you’re seeing with battleground states especially is one of two things,” Stoner said. “Either an influx of more highly educated, higher skilled white collar jobs in places like North Carolina and Georgia which has made them turn bluer, or, states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin where the manufacturing economy has been going away for the last 50 years, [making them] more conservative.”
Indeed, as Youth Outreach Chair of League of Women Voters Camille Milks explains, ideology shifts between population groups in battleground states, as well as the overall country, have led to groups throwing their support behind candidates based on their respective issues.
“I’m part of the baby boomer group, and we’ve been kind of overpowering everything for the longest time,” Milks said. We did not have big concerns about climate change, we did not have big concerns about high school shootings, and these kind of things are really important to more [younger voters].”
In many ways, most paths to the White House have been drawn before Election Day has even kicked off. Of the states that will likely not have very close margins, forecasters such as 270toWin have used historical data to predict that Democrat Kamala Harris will secure at least 226 of the electoral votes, while Republican Donald Trump can expect 219 under his belt. The current battleground states account for the remaining 93 electoral votes.
Ahead of the election, institutions such as Times/Sienna, FiveThirtyEight and The Cook Political Report have conducted and collected several polls across both the country and specific battleground states. Known as pollsters, the data they collect is used by the general public to make predictions about different results, such as the way battleground states will vote and who the eventual winner will be.
Currently, most major pollsters have not given either candidate a significant edge in any battleground state. Although current polling has Harris consistently edging out Trump in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, and polling repeatedly has shown Trump retaining slim leads in southern states like North Carolina, just a one-two point national shift in either candidate’s direction will make or break the election. In fact, a simulation of 70,000 potential elections executed by political analyst Nate Silver saw that in 40% of cases, all of the battleground states will end up voting for the same candidate – which candidate that will be is yet to be known.
“People aren’t intentionally prejudiced, but I think there is something in the norms of our society, because politics is not all about law; a lot of it’s about norms,” Stoner said. “That’s what’s kind of in our deep seated subconscious, and determines how we vote.”
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump hold rallies on the campaign trail, defend their policies to the press and shake hands with members of the public. As the Nov. 5 election date approaches, the candidates work to attract the youngest demographic: Generation Z.
“As a Gen Z student, I see voting as hope and a way to get my voice heard,” senior Adonis Iparraguirre said. “It symbolizes our generation’s desire for change and that we can influence the future on current issues.”
According to The Pew Research Center, younger voters historically tend to participate at lower rates than previous generations. However, Gen Z had the highest voting rate compared to other generations in their first midterm election in 2022, as a study by Tufts reported an 11% voting increase in the presidential election from 2016 to 2020. Yet, the predictability of Gen Z is still up for debate since past voting rates may not predict the rates in November. Like others from Brookings, social studies teacher Matthew Stoner believes that rates from midterms or 2020 can vary.
“You in general, just young people in general [are] the hardest to predict,” Stoner said. “It’s always a surprise.”
However, what is not at issue is how Gen Z is the most diverse voting generation. As stated by The League of Women Voters, about half are voters of color, greater than any other generation. According to The League of Women youth outreach chair Camille Milks, demographic diversity is a unique aspect of Gen Z.
“I love it because you guys are more diversified and you don’t have the prejudice that we’ve been fighting for in the past,” Milks said. “I absolutely love the diversity, so I would love for you guys to go vote.”
Often, factors such as a diversified voting audience favor the Democratic Party as per The Pew Research Center. Even so, according to The Center for American Women and Politics, gender considerations, especially with younger men as stated in Brookings, can influence political stances. As a result, Stoner thinks balancing the ticket is a decision that a presidential candidate takes into consideration.
“The ugly truth is that a woman’s never been elected president,” Stoner said. “You have a woman who’s a minority. Harris might need that Watz kind of stamp of approval to influence some of the voters who, unfortunately, might not vote for a woman or person of color.”
Ultimately, Gen Z prioritizes issues differently from other generations, a possible result of first-hand exposure to global pandemics, school shootings and environmental shifts. Now, 41 million Gen Z voters, including 8 million new voters, will be eligible to have an input, potentially impacting the election.
“You guys got the power,” Milks said. “The power is actually in your hands and I would love for you guys to use it. I know you guys are concerned about issues that are very important, yes, and I want to see you guys stand up and use your voice because your voice does count.”
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Advik Sood is a junior in his third year with The Purple Tide who is even slightly more of an incredible 21st-century columnist (compared someone). When he’s not writing the next big thing, he enjoys late night trips to Mosaic with his friends and watches shows such as Suits and South Park.
